Settling the Big XII South with decimals, not decibels

Who needs stats and facts when you have a tan like this?

Why is a 3-way tie so confusing? Why do Mack Brown and Kirk Herbstreit, among many, many others, insist that Texas beating Oklahoma settles a 3-way tie? Why do so many people believe you can simply throw Texas Tech out of the equation because they got blown out once? The answer is one of three things: 1) Texas fans, 2)People who refuse to base their opinion on stats and facts, or 3) Idiots.

Regardless of what any talking head or head coach wishes to be true, a 3-way tie cannot and should not be settled any way other than comparing all three teams at once. Texas beating Oklahoma does not “settle it on the field” as Mack Brown claims. Why does that game count while Texas Tech’s win over Texas is conveniently forgotten? I’ll give Mack a pass, though, because he cannot be expected to be objective. However, there are no excuses for “objective” “journalists” such as Herbstreit or ESPN.com’s Pat Forde commenting that Texas Tech should not be a part of the conversation. Of course they are, they HAVE to be, it is a – say it all together – THREE-WAY TIE.

Let me be clear in saying that there are valid reasons to believe that Texas is the best team of the three and I am not belittling anyone who attempts to use valid reasoning. However, I am belittling anyone who simplifies the situation by saying “Texas beat Oklahoma, Texas should go”. To quote Dr. Perry Cox (from Scrubs if you are not in the know), “Wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong. Wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong. You’re wrong. You’re wrong. You’re wrong.”

I am now going to examine a few factors that can – objectively, through the use of numbers, not outlandish opinions or a ridiculous amount of hair gel – give us an idea of which of the three teams truly deserves to be in the Big XII championship game. (Note – Games against non I-A teams are not included in any calculations)

Opponent’s Winning Percentage (OppW%)

The first factor is fairly simple – opponent winning percentage (OppW%). Since each of the three teams finished 11-1, a look at the winning percentage of their opponents can give a quick measure of who played the strongest schedule. The does not include games played against the specific Big XII team (i.e., Oklahoma’s OppW% does not include the games played against Oklahoma) or, as mentioned earlier, any games played against Division I-AA foes, either by a team or its opponents.

Oklahoma             .623        71-43**

Texas                    .613        76-48

Texas Tech           .571        60-45

** – Oklahoma opponents Cincinnati (at Hawaii) and Washington (at California) each have one game remaining. The most likely outcome is those teams going 1-1 which would put Oklahoma’s OppW% at .621. If both teams were to lose, the percentage would drop to .612, .001 lower than Texas.

*** – A person could point out that Oklahoma benefits by not counting I-AA opponent Chattanooga. Removing Texas’s non-conference opponent with the worst record (Arkansas and UTEP both went (5-7) puts Texas’ OppW% at .628, slightly ahead of Oklahoma’s. I’m willing to essentially call this category a draw because of the following point.

If you want to take it a step further and look at opponents’ opponents winning percentage, it goes like this: Texas Tech .554, Oklahoma .545, Texas .536, with many of this weekend’s regular season finales factoring in. Essentially, Texas Tech’s opponents played slightly tougher schedules than Oklahoma’s and Texas’s opponents, but nothing significant. Overall, the strength of schedule is a slight edge for Oklahoma, but I am willing to call it even between OU and Texas.

Relative Domination (RD)

The next factor is a stat I created and call relative domination (RD). RD examines the score versus each opponent and how that compares to the average score of all the rest of the opponent’s games, independent of that game. For example, it takes Oklahoma’s score versus Kansas and measures how it compares to the scores of the rest of Kansas’s games, not including the Oklahoma game. By measuring the offensive and defensive numbers, we get a picture of how much a team was able to dominate its opponents relative to the rest of the season. This includes scores all games by a team and its opponents, so no whining allowed about how this team scored a garbage touchdown or how that team took a knee when they could have kicked a field goal – it all evens out. Thus, an RD of 10 means that, on average, a team’s final margin was 10 points better against each opponent than would have been expected.

(As before, games against I-AA competition are not included in any calculations.)

Big XII South Games Only

Oklahoma             RD = 31.5

Texas                    RD = 21.0

Texas Tech           RD = 13.2

Conference Games Only

Oklahoma             RD = 27.4

Texas                    RD = 23.2

Texas Tech           RD = 15.8

All Games

Oklahoma             RD = 32.6

Texas                    RD = 30.7

Texas Tech           RD = 19.6

By all three measures of RD, Oklahoma had the stronger season. While playing a schedule either slightly more difficult or essentially equally tough, Oklahoma dominated that schedule more than Texas and far more than Texas Tech. Note that those who argued that Texas Tech was the weakest of the three were correct, which at no point I would have argued against. However, the fact remains that even though Texas Tech was the weakest, they DID beat Texas, they DID finish 7-1 in the conference, and they ARE a part of the 3-way tie.

Oklahoma rightly got the nod to go to the Big XII championship game.

Whew, I’m glad that’s settled.

~ by Bristol on December 4, 2008.