2012 Iowa Caucuses

The Iowa GOP Caucuses are tonight.


After more than a year of speculation of who will run, how candidates did in the August Ames Straw Poll, who won the latest debate, and who has made the biggest gaffes, the Iowa GOP caucuses will finally be held tonight in over a 1000 precincts across our great state.

The winner may or may not vault themselves into a November battle with current incumbent President, Barack Obama.  History has shown that Iowa may not be the bellweather of states the media makes it out to be (just ask Mike Huckabee), but it does serve the purpose of weeding out weaker candidates for future primaries held in other states.

As a registered Republican, I will be taking part in the caucus process tonight, and it will be my first foray into what has become an Iowa institution.  My take on the candidates below are the product of years of conservative talk radio listening, books read by conservative authors, and a lifetime of growing up in a conservative household.  So, take what I say with a grain of salt.

My order of likelihood of voting in tonight’s proceedings, from least likely to most likely:

Ron Paul, Representative from Texas.  I cannot, under any circumstances, vote for a man who will relegate America to pre-World War I status in the world.  The world is full of evil regimes, tyrants, and terrorists.  It may be bending the Constitution a little, but we need to be the enforcer of peace and justice on the globe, and not necessarily by military means.  Paul has some great fiscal policies that I pray are incorporated in the GOP platform by the end of the summer.

Jon Huntsman, former Governor of Utah.  Yes, Huntsman famously was quoted along the lines of Iowa picks corn, not presidents.  He rides his daddy’s coat tails into about everything (his father invented Stryofoam), but that didn’t prevent him from putting forth sound fiscal policies in his native state of Utah.  I think he’s a weak conservative, and Obama would shred him.  But, he’s likely to be stronger in foreign policy than Dr. Paul, so he ranks just ahead of him.

Newt Gingrich, former Speaker of the House, Georgia.  There was a time, right around Thanksgiving, that Gingrich was my man.  Herman Cain had just pulled out of the running, and Gingrich’s fantastic showings in the debates and his myriad of good policy ideas had me captivated.  And so did a great portion of Iowa voters, who had the former Speaker skyrocketing up the polls.  But after hearing him praise Franklin D. Roosevelt as the 20th century’s greatest president and how he loved Teddy Roosevelt, I changed my mind.  Both of these former Presidents are the idols of Progressives…a political faction with roots on both sides of the aisle who adore one thing:  Big government.  If anything, we need a smaller government in 4 years, so picking Newt would be a step in the wrong direction.

Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts.  One would think that I would have put Romney, a liberal Republican, further down the list.  He’s mostly in this position because of his oratory ability and he could go head-on with Obama in a debate.  I also think the man has some flip-flops into the right categories and could be a possibly good president.  Like ANYONE on this list, I will fervently support him in the general election.

Rick Perry, Governor of Texas.  If Perry were a stronger debater, he would be #1 on my list.  My list also puts what many pundits believe to be the last electable person at #3.  He is weak on immigration, but I believe his economic policies enacted in Texas would mean potentially millions of jobs in America when scaled up.  He would be a great leader of this country, but I think he’d be skewered by Obama in the debates, even when the President has little record to stand on.

Michele Bachmann, Representative from Minnesota.  It is very difficult to ascend from the House of Representatives to the presidency (Lincoln was the last in 1860).  Heck, Obama was the first Senator since JFK did the trick in 1960.  What I like about Bachmann is her stance on Obama-Care (after losing my job as a result of its passage, I’m still bitter) and her experience as a tax lawyer.  She is a staunch conservative, and I think she will fight very hard against encroachments by the federal government into the business and private sectors.  She will be hard-pressed to gain support outside of the Midwest though.

Rick Santorum, former Senator from Pennsylvania.  Aside from Bachmann, the most conservative candidate is Santorum.  He is strong in foreign affairs (from committee assignments when he served in Congress), and has some really good ideas in the taxation arena.  What I connect with most with Santorum is his personal life.  He lost a baby at 20 weeks (his second child), nearly the same time my wife and I lost our twins.  I can see myself in his shoes, and probably him in mine, had we known each other.  Connections like that put you in a person’s state of mind, and most of his policies and actions speak to me as a good leader who has overcome a lot to be where he is .

How do I see the national elections panning out?  I would put this order in effect now:

1.  Mitt Romney–his appeal to Independents and the Northeast (where the GOP does NOT carry states and are thus irrelevant) will propel him to the nomination.

2.  Rick Perry–he will win some Southern states and outdistance most other candidates.

3.  Newt Gingrich–he’s run a positive campaign and has great ideas, enough to win some states.

4.  Everyone else–I don’t see anyone else in the race much more than a month from now.  I hope beyond hope that Santorum is still standing after tonight.  Bachmann will likely call it quits if she doesn’t get a Top 3 finish.  Paul has enthusiastic supporters here, but virtually no where else.  Huntsman is a tool.

Check your local news tonight for what happened, and check back here in several months to see if I got it right 🙂


~ by goetgre on January 3, 2012.

One Response to “2012 Iowa Caucuses”

  1. Great commentary, agree 100 per cent. I only hope Obama gets beat, and whoever gets in brings this country back to the freedoms we all enjoy so my grandkids can someday live in the America we all know and love. God bless American, land that I love.


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