This Week In Prop Bets

WRITTEN BY MAX

Make money money make money

Bill Barnwell, who I have grown to love over the last few months, writes regularly for Grantland.com.  I sincerely urge you to check out his columns.  His latest one is on a subject very dear to my heart, that of the prop bet.  He does an excellent job explaining the odds and if you want in depth coverage of how the odds are made and what the numbers mean, I again urge you to read his work.  But what he does have that I want to talk about is the Las Vegas Hotel’s prop bets.  I love the idea of prop bet, so rather than rehash what he already wrote, I’d rather just give you my picks.  Enjoy.

Will there be overtime?
Yes: +800
No: -1100

No, there will not be overtime.  Don’t bet on this one, it isn’t worth it.

What will be the largest lead of the game by either team?
Over 13.5 points: -160
Under 13.5 points: +140

I’d put my money on the under.  I don’t think either team pulls ahead big in this one.

Will the game be decided by exactly three points?
Yes: +375
No: -450

This game is not decided by exactly three.  Don’t take this bet.

Will the game be tied after 0-0?
Yes: +115
No: -135

Yes.  This game will be tied again.  But remember, as Barnwell points out in his breakdown, if the Giants score two field goals and the Pats score a touchdown, that 6-6 tie doesn’t count.  However, I think if the Pats miss the PAT that would count as a tie.  He didn’t cover that.  I think if the kick is good it doesn’t count, but if they miss it it would.

What will the final score of the game be?
Touchdown: -240
Any other score: +200

I think the final score of this game is going to be a touchdown.  But IF you are going to put money on it, put your money on any other score so you can win something.

How many points will the two teams combine to score?
Over 62.5 points: +200
Over 69.5 points: +400

Take the under.

Will either team score in the first 5.5 minutes of the game?
Yes: +105
No: -12

This game is going to start out slow.  There’s no real payout either way.  Why waste your money?

How long will the longest touchdown of the game be?
Over 49.5 yards: -110
Under 49.5 yards: -110

Terrible odds on this one, but if you can make a $50 side bet with a buddy, straight up, then take the over.

How many touchdowns will the two teams combine to score?
Over 6.5 touchdowns: +105
Under 6.5 touchdowns: -125

Just remember if you take the under in this, you are also taking the under in the O/U.  I think this game is going to be in the 42-45 point range, so I’d probably take the under and hope it starts slow and both teams look lost for the first half.  At some point, these teams are going to score points.  Will that be late enough that they come in under?  I think it will be late.

Will at least one quarter be scoreless?
Yes: +350
No: -420

Yes, you have good odds on this one.  Why not put $50 on two long drives that end in turnovers?

Alternate Giants Lines
Giants -3.5: +210
Giants -7.5: +400
Giants -10.5: +550
Giants -14.5: +800

Now is as good a time as any to tell you I am taking the Giants to win straight up.  7.5 seems like a lot, however. You should restrain yourself from thinking that the Pats will lose by more than 6.5.  If you bet this, bear that in mind.

In which half will Eli Manning accrue more gross passing yards?
First Half: +115
Second Half: -135

Barnwell did a break down on how to go this way based on if you thought the Giants would win big or have to throw from behind.  But I think they will have to throw no matter what, and I think he is going to have more yards in the first half because they will throw early and then try to run it out and take time off the clock in the second half.

How many carries will Brandon Jacobs have?
Over 7.5: +105
Under 7.5: -125

If you think the Giants will win, like me, you should take the over because they will try to control the clock.  And 8 carries is not that much.  I think he has almost that many in the first half.  The Pats defense is porous.

How many different Giants will score?
Over 3.5: -140
Under 3.5: +120

Note on this that Manning would have to score by not throwing a pass to count as a different scorer.  I’d take the over on this, but if you have to spend $140 to make a hundred, why gamble?

How many points will the Giants win by?
1-4: +500
5-8: +700
9-12: +1000
13-16: +1000
17-20: +1500
21-24: +3000
25-28: +5000
29-33: +10000
34-38: +10000
39 or more: +7500

Since the Giants are underdogs, you could put a little on each one, if you have the money.  I think the Giants are going to roll so you should win something anyway.

Alternate Patriots Lines
Patriots -7.5: +195
Patriots -10.5: +290
Patriots -14.5: +500
Patriots -17.5: +750

Even though I love the Pats, I’m thinking they will lose, so you shouldn’t take any of these.

How many carries will BenJarvus Green-Ellis have?
Over 13.0: +115
Under 13.0: -135

I think if the Pats have any chance of winning they need to get some sort of running game going.  The Giants defense is tough.  But is 13 carries really that few?  Do you think Brady will throw it 55 times?  He might have to, but I would take the over.

What will happen first?
Patriots score: -120
Patriots punt: EVEN

This is a stupid bet.  Don’t waste your money.

Will the Patriots score in all four quarters?
Yes: +130
No: -150

If you bet this one, bet the yet, otherwise, what’s the point?  I do think they score in each quarter.

Who will score more points?
Patriots during the first half +12.5: -110
Giants during the entire game -12.5: -110

The Giants are going to win, so if you have to spend $100 to make $10, then take the Giants to outscore.

How many receptions will Rob Gronkowski have?
Over 5.5: -145
Under 5.5: +125

Take the under.  High ankle sprains won’t keep a Gronk out, but he will be ineffective.

Will Rob Gronkowski score a touchdown?
Yes: -160
No: +140

I think he will score a touchdown, so save your money on this one.

Will Rob Gronkowski score a touchdown in the first half?
Yes: +175
No: -200

This is the better odds of the last two bets, so I see no harm in putting a little on the yes, especially if he feels better early.  I could see him making a couple plays early, but as the night wears on, so will his ankle.

How many receiving yards will Rob Gronkowski accrue?
0-10: +1200
11-20: +1000
21-30: +800
31-40: +800
41-50: +800
51-60: +700
61-70: +700
71-80: +700
81-90: +700
91-100: +800
101-110: +1200
111-120 or 121-130: +2000
131-140: +2500
141-150: +3000
151-160: +5000
161-170: +6000
171-185: +7500
186-200: +7500
201 or more: +5000

If you are going to put money on this one, wouldn’t you roll the dice that he would have over 100 yards?  The payout is so much better.  I’d put my money on 81-90.

How many field goals will Stephen Gostkowski make?
Over 1.5: EVEN
Under 1.5: -120

Take the over.  The Giants are tough.

Which player will score the first touchdown of Super Bowl XLVI?
Hakeem Nicks: +700
Victor Cruz: +800
Ahmad Bradshaw: +900
Brandon Jacobs: +1200
Jake Ballard: +2000

Rob Gronkowski: +500
BenJarvus Green-Ellis: +900
Tom Brady: +1800
Danny Woodhead: +3000
Chad Ochocinco: +4000

Just remember to keep this bet consistent.  If you bet that the Pats are going to win the coin toss, you should be that a Pat will score first.  My small money is on Ochocinco.  My large money is on Deion Branch, who doesn’t have odds listed, but who I think will have a big game.

Field : +800
No Touchdown Scored: +50000

Don’t you have to put something on No Touchdowns Scored?  Even if you just put $5, if it hits, someone is eating lobster.

How many kickoff returns will the two teams combine for?
Over 6.5: +145
Under 6.5: -165

They get two no matter what, so do you think there will be more than 4 returns?  I’m taking the over.

Will Zoltan Mesko punt a touchback?
Yes: +210
No: -250

I don’t believe in punters, so I would just stay away from this bet.

Will there be a safety?
Yes: +900
No: -1300

Don’t waste your money on this bet.  The only way there would be a safety is if there is an inadvertent intentional grounding.

Will Chad Ochocinco catch a pass?
Yes: +130
No: -150

This would be better if it was “Will Ochocinco have a pass thrown his way?” or “Will Ochocinco be active for the game.”  I’d put a little on yes, though.  If he is active, I could see him having a huge game.  This could be his only chance to ever do anything in the Super Bowl.

Will Corey Webster intercept a pass?
Yes: +400
No: -500

These are good odds.  I’d take the yes and not get out of control with the wager.

Which team will accrue more penalty yards?
Giants: -110
Patriots: -110

I think the Giants will accrue more, but there is no real incentive to bet on on this one.  Save it for the Madonna question.

Which team will use a coach’s challenge first?
Giants: -110
Patriots: -110

Again, why waste your money and odds that suck.

How will the opening coin toss land?
Heads: -101
Tails: -101

For posterity, I always take heads.

How many players will attempt a pass during the game?
Over 2.5: +290
Under 2.5: -350

I think New England will try a trick play with either Hernandez or Gronk.  Maybe both.  But to be safe, take the under.

What will the jersey number be of the first player to score a touchdown?
Over 80.5: EVEN
Under 80.5: -120

Take the under.  It’s going to be a rushing touchdown.

Who will throw an interception first?
Eli Manning: -160
Tom Brady: +140

I’m taking Brady to throw the first pick, but I think they each throw one.

Who will have more rushing yards?
Eli Manning +2.5 yards: EVEN
Tom Brady -2.5 yards: -120

Brady never rushes.  The smart money is on Eli, but why wager on this.  Just save it for The Madonna Question.

Who will have more receiving yards?
Victor Cruz -8.5 yards: -110
Wes Welker +8.5 yards: -110

Cruz.

Who will have more receiving yards?
Travis Beckum +30.5 yards: -110
Deion Branch -30.5 yards: -110

Branch.

Who will score a touchdown first?
Ahmad Bradshaw: -125
BenJarvus Green-Ellis: +105

Green-Ellis.

Now for the non-football bets:

Will Kelly Clarkson’s bare belly be showing when she sings the national anthem?
Yes: +300

I hope not.  Don’t bet on this.

Oh.

What color will Madonna’s hair be when she begins the Super Bowl Halftime show?
Blonde: -400
Field: +250

Is this her face hair?  Because that will be black.  Take the field.

Will Madonna wear an NFL jersey or shirt at any point during the Super Bowl halftime show?
Yes: +250
No: -400

No way.  But don’t spend $400 to make a$100.

How many songs will Madonna perform?
Over 3.5: +150
Under 3.5: -110

This is the question.  She will do over 3 songs.  Put all of your money on the over.

How many times will Peyton Manning be shown on television during the game?
Over 3.5: -110
Under 3.5: -110

Depends whether the Giants are winning or losing.  I’d take the over. By the way, this doesn’t count during half time.

What will the color of the Gatorade dumped on the winning coach be?
Yellow: +175
Orange: +225
Clear/water: +300
Red: +550
Green: +600
Blue: +1000

Classic yellow.

Which number will be higher?
Yards of Tom Brady’s longest completion -6.5 yards: -110
Combined number of points and rebounds accrued by Kevin Durant against the Spurs on February 4 +6.5 points+rebounds: -110

Durant.

Who will have more points?
Giants +0.5 points: -110
Knicks by the end of the first quarter of their game with the Nets on February 4 -0.5 points: -110

Knicks.  I would be even more on the Knicks if the question was “How many selfish shots will they take in the first quarter?” +15.5: -800

Which number will be higher?
Gross passing yards accrued by Tom Brady +63.5 yards: -110
Number of points accrued by the college basketball teams of Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Illinois, and Northwestern on February 6 -63.5 points: -110

If you think five Big Ten teams will average 70 points or higher, then you should take them.  But since that won’t happen, take Brady.  He’s going for over 350.

Which number will be higher?
Longest gross punt by Giants or Patriots +13.5 yards: -110
Nick Watney’s score in the fourth round of the Phoenix Open on February 5 -13.5 strokes: -110

Since I think Watney is going to shoot like a 78, you gotta put all your money on him, right?  do you really think there will be a 79+ yard punt?

Who will have more?
Brandon Jacobs touchdowns: -300
Wayne Rooney goals against Chelsea on February 5: +250

Honestly, I don’t see either of these guys scoring, but I think this is going to be even anyway.  IF Jacobs scores, and that’s a big IF, he will only score once.  So if Rooney hits a goal, it’s a wash again.  Go back and put more money on Madonna singing four songs.

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~ by maxaverage on February 3, 2012.

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